Ten charts compare Joe Biden’s record with Donald Trump’s
Who comes out better?
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PARTISANSHIP IS SO powerful in American politics that Republicans and Democrats frequently operate with different sets of facts. The charts below give you the data you need to assess the two presidents’ records.
Start with inflation. To insulate Americans from economic fallout from the pandemic and work shutdowns, Congress passed two big stimulus packages in 2020 (when Donald Trump was president). Then in 2021 (when Joe Biden was) Congress passed another one. In retrospect this was bigger than it needed to be, and contributed to inflation soaring even higher in 2022—though also to America’s strong economic recovery. Other rich countries also saw inflation soar, and the reduction in inflation during 2023 was great news for America and for the rest of the world economy. If we were giving credit to how quickly inflation came down, that would be a point for Mr Biden. But given the elevated levels throughout his term, Mr Trump wins this one. The headlines, after all, are about Bidenflation, not Trumpflation.
Mr Trump inherited an economy that, contrary to his rhetoric, was already doing well. The economy chugged along during his presidency—until covid-19 hit. But he cannot take credit for the apparent surge in average wages towards the end of his presidency. That reflected a wrenching shift in the composition of the labour force after the pandemic struck: low-earning workers were far more likely to lose their jobs than high-earners. Under Mr Biden, Americans have rejoined the labour force in droves. Nominal-wage increases have been strong but inflation has eroded their earnings. If you follow the pre-covid trend line, the performance under Mr Biden looks like a continuation of the gains under Mr Trump. Let’s call this a draw.
As with earnings, 2020 was both an anomaly and an inflection for employment rates. Unlike many European countries, America’s federal and local governments decided to give money to workers, rather than pay companies to keep people in employment. The share in work fell, but America’s economy bounced back more quickly than Europe’s. Mr Biden’s campaign sets a lot of store on the “misery index”—the combination of employment and inflation—continuing to drop in time for November. Count the covid year and this is a clear win for Mr Biden. Exclude it and his victory is much narrower.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 added to the federal budget deficit later in Mr Trump’s term. The covid stimulus packages under both presidents blew it open. The deficit under Mr Biden is smaller as a share of GDP thanks to the economy’s recovery, plus the end of federal covid spending. But Mr Biden’s industrial policies have not helped. Ultimately, though, the roots of America’s fiscal problems go back decades, with the government over-extended on entitlement programmes (especially Medicare and Social Security) and under-funded via taxation. The deficit has come down under Mr Biden, but is still above pre-covid levels. In reality this is an ugly draw: both presidents have done nothing to fundamentally fix America’s ballooning deficits.
Mr Trump talked-up the stockmarket as a measure of his presidency when he was in office. His advisers reported that one of the best arguments to dissuade him from a particular course of action was that it would tank the market. The S&P 500 index of big American firms is higher since Mr Biden’s inauguration. But it rose twice as much during Mr Trump’s first 1,000 days in office. (Not that the S&P is something presidents have much control over.) Call this a win for Mr Trump.
When he was inaugurated in January 2017, Mr Trump vowed to stop “this American carnage”. The murder rate did fall a bit in his first two years. But it spiked again in 2020. This was probably caused by police forces withdrawing from some parts of cities, and a decline in police-community relations after George Floyd’s murder in May 2020. Other factors, such as schools being closed during the pandemic, probably played a part, too. That rise continued in 2021. Since then it has come down each year. American carnage is declining on Mr Biden’s watch, so he wins on this one.
In June 2017 Mr Trump’s administration announced that America was pulling out of the Paris Agreement on climate change. His administration did not prioritise the deployment of renewable energy. Companies invested anyway, driven by state policies and the declining cost of wind and solar power. Mr Biden sought to supercharge the green transition. After he became president Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains America’s biggest-ever investments in tackling climate change. The country’s capacity to generate renewable energy increased sharply in 2021. This one is a win for Mr Biden (not that Republicans mind: on the stump, Mr Trump has argued that the shift to electric vehicles is a “transition to Hell”).
But Mr Biden has not been as green as his detractors say nor as climate activists would like. His administration has granted lots of permits for new drilling, and oil production has soared from the covid-induced slump on his watch. His policies on oil, as in other areas, are pragmatic, recognising the energy transition as just that. This one is a win for Mr Biden.
The best measure America has of undocumented, or illegal, migration is apprehensions at the southern border. These numbers are tricky to handle. They tend to go up when the economy is hot (it is generally under-appreciated that illegal migration surged in 2019, when Mr Trump was president). Covid-19 allowed the federal government to quickly expel migrants who crossed the south-western border under a public-health measure called Title 42, which stayed in place until long after the worst of the pandemic was over. But those who were deposited on the Mexican side of the border often attempted to cross again. This partly explains the spike in encounters. Democrats who do not live in border states tend not to realise that the “border chaos” that Republicans talk about is real. That was until Republican politicians in those border states began shipping migrants to big Democratic cities such as New York and Chicago. This one is a clear win for Mr Trump.
Our tally ends in two draws, and four wins for Mr Biden and three for Mr Trump. But despite coming out ahead on these measures, our final chart shows that Mr Biden’s approval rating is currently even lower than Mr Trump’s was at the same stage of his presidency. Part of this is explained by the salience of migration and inflation for many voters. Then there is Mr Biden’s age. After a lifetime of public service, he has accomplished more in his first few years as president than few imagined possible. But at 81, many Americans fear he is no longer up for another four years in the toughest job in the world.■
Correction (January 19th 2024): An earlier version of this story stated that our illegal immigration data shows apprehensions at the US border. In fact, it shows encounters. We also updated the piece to show that, while the S&P 500 has hit higher levels under Joe Biden, it performed stronger under Mr Trump relative to the start of their terms in office. Sorry.